January '26

Back in 1984, he began collecting geopolitical forecasts from leading experts in politics, economics, and physics — and twenty years later, he compared their predictions to those made by a chimpanzee randomly throwing darts at a board. The result? Not much difference.

But Professor Tetlock did not stop there. He wondered: might some people actually possess true prophetic talent? If the experts fail, could ordinary folk succeed instead?

The answer is: yes and no. In 98% of cases, no elevated foresight was detected. Yet in roughly 2% of the population, Tetlock observed a striking ability to consistently outperform chance.

These “superforecasters” share no common education, job, age, or gender. The only consistent trait? A willingness to revise one’s opinions in light of new information.

And so you may consider your January sock not just a fashion choice, but a modest tool for sharpening your own predictions. Pink is sometimes viewed with suspicion in gentlemanly circles — yet it is prejudice itself that clouds the crystal ball. Let us, therefore, open our minds and step into the new year unburdened by bias.